Prediction markets called the midterms. Now they face the winners
Kalshi and Polymarket priced in Democratic gains early. Politico reports the result may bring closer oversight of both platforms.
Prediction markets
5 stories, newest first.
How prediction market prices work
A contract trading at 62 cents implies roughly a 62% chance. Here is where that number comes from and what it leaves out.
July 2026: campaign staffers kept trying to bet on their own races
Kalshi said it had blocked dozens of trades by people working on campaigns. An NPR investigation found the screening had gaps.
Super Bowl LX was the day prediction markets became a sports business
Kalshi handled hundreds of millions of dollars in trades on one game in February 2026, and state gambling regulators took notice.
The NYSE's owner put up to $2 billion into Polymarket
Intercontinental Exchange's October 2025 investment valued the prediction market at about $8 billion and treated its prices as data worth selling.
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