The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% in one day. Here is what drove it
Two days after the midterms, investors sold the companies building AI data centers, and chip stocks took the hardest hit.
Markets and trading
Stocks, prediction markets and the mechanics of trading.
Prediction markets called the midterms. Now they face the winners
Kalshi and Polymarket priced in Democratic gains early. Politico reports the result may bring closer oversight of both platforms.
How prediction market prices work
A contract trading at 62 cents implies roughly a 62% chance. Here is where that number comes from and what it leaves out.
How an order book works: bids, asks and the spread
Every market price is the meeting point of two lists of orders. Reading those lists shows what a trade will cost before you place it.
Position sizing: the math of risking 1%
How much you buy matters more than what you buy. One formula turns a risk limit into a share count, and the numbers show why small is durable.
Prop firm evaluations explained: targets, drawdowns and the fine print
Pay a fee, pass a trading test, trade the firm's money. The rules decide whether that is a fair shot, so here is how they work.
Trailing versus static drawdown: the rule that ends most funded accounts
Two accounts with the same $2,500 loss limit can be very different to trade. The difference is whether the floor moves.
October 2026: the Fed holds after its first rate increase in three years
A week before the midterms, the Fed left rates alone. Two officials wanted another increase, and markets expected one in December.
July 2026: campaign staffers kept trying to bet on their own races
Kalshi said it had blocked dozens of trades by people working on campaigns. An NPR investigation found the screening had gaps.
April 2026: the Fed's most divided vote since 1992
Rates stayed put, four officials dissented in two different directions, and it was Jerome Powell's last decision as chair.
Super Bowl LX was the day prediction markets became a sports business
Kalshi handled hundreds of millions of dollars in trades on one game in February 2026, and state gambling regulators took notice.
December 2025: the Fed's third cut, and a split that did not heal
The quarter-point cut was the last of the year. Three officials voted against it, and the committee signaled it was close to done.
The NYSE's owner put up to $2 billion into Polymarket
Intercontinental Exchange's October 2025 investment valued the prediction market at about $8 billion and treated its prices as data worth selling.
Circle's IPO: the day a stablecoin company rose 168%
The issuer of USDC priced its shares at $31 in June 2025 and closed its first day at $83.23, the biggest debut of its size on record.
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