July 2026: campaign staffers kept trying to bet on their own races
Kalshi said it had blocked dozens of trades by people working on campaigns. An NPR investigation found the screening had gaps.
Kivorent News desk, published , 2 min read
This is a look back at an event from . We wrote it on November 11, 2026, from the sources listed at the end.
What to know
- Kalshi said it had blocked dozens of trades by campaign staffers on their own races since May 2026, NPR reported on July 9.
- NPR found at least one staffer listed in federal campaign records who had still traded on a race they worked on.
- At least 21 prediction market bills had been introduced in Congress that year. None had passed either chamber.
A prediction market on an election has an obvious weakness. The people who work on a campaign know things the public does not: internal polls, money problems, a damaging story about to break. In July 2026, NPR reported on how often those people were trying to trade.
What Kalshi said
Kalshi told NPR it had blocked dozens of trades by campaign staffers on their own races since May. Its method is to take the names of staffers from campaign finance filings and match them against its user accounts, then bar those users from that race's markets.
It also gave broader figures for the first quarter of 2026, covering all kinds of insider trading on its platform:
| First quarter of 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Insider trading investigations opened | More than 150 |
| Trades blocked | More than 100 |
| Cases referred to law enforcement | At least 20 |
Polymarket reported nearly 100 referrals across its markets, one of which led to an arrest in the United States.
The gaps
NPR found at least one staffer named in federal filings who had traded on a race they worked on. Former election officials told NPR that the filings miss many people with inside knowledge: volunteers, lawyers, pollsters and subcontractors. They do not cover state and local races, or friends and family. Kalshi said it planned to extend monitoring to local elections.
Who was policing it
Mostly the platforms themselves. NPR reported that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had largely left enforcement to the companies. In Congress, at least 21 bills on prediction markets had been introduced during the year without passing either chamber, and a House committee was investigating both Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading.
How it reads now
The markets went on to anticipate the midterm results, and the party that won has said it wants tighter rules. The questions raised in July are the ones any new rules would have to answer: who counts as an insider, and who checks.
For traders, the practical point is that a price can move because someone knows something. That is one more reason to size positions carefully. See the math of risking 1%.
This article is general information. It is not investment advice, and trading involves the risk of losing money.
Sources
- Campaign staffers keep trying to bet on races despite push to curb insider trading, NPR, republished by VPM, July 9, 2026
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